Re: Promotion discussion thread

by deadbuzzardalive Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:54 pm

Cardiff's game against Derby has been called off, so they can't go ten points clear of us today, but they do play Burton at home before we play again, and if they win that as expected, they will go ten points ahead of us, having played the same number of games.

I can't see us beating Hull anyway, we've collapsed, and they will be up for it fighting for their Championship survival after their poor performance yesterday. At this stage we're much more likely to finish outside the top six than in the top two.

by deadbuzzardalive Sun Mar 18, 2018 3:49 pm

These last two games, really have destroyed our season, after the Wolves win, we had a better chance of finishing above them, than we do of finishing above Cardiff now, the same points gap but with less games to close it, and Cardiff have a game in hand.

The only real positive for us now, is that we still have a very good chance of making the play-offs (not guaranteed), which will give us a one in four chance of going up, so promotion is still a possibility.

by Army villain Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:22 pm

This is how I think it will end up
Wolves 82 points at the moment, think they will get 18 more points 100 at the end of season.
Cardiff 76 points at the moment, think they might get another 18 points so 94 at end of season.
Fulham 69 points should get another 15 points maybe more so 84 at end of season
Villa 69 hope to get another 15 points so 84 points at end of season.
Derby 62 points, think they will get another 15 points so at the end of season 77 points.
Middlesbrough 62 points think they will get 15 points so at end of season 77 points.
Bristol city 61 points should get 12 points so at the end of season 73 points.
But this is the championship and the bottom teams will be playing to stay in the league.

by achilles Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:17 pm

Army villain wrote:This is how I think it will end up
Wolves 82 points at the moment, think they will get 18 more points 100 at the end of season.
Cardiff 76 points at the moment, think they might get another 18 points so 94 at end of season.
Fulham 69 points should get another 15 points maybe more so 84 at end of season
Villa 69 hope to get another 15 points so 84 points at end of season.
Derby 62 points, think they will get another 15 points so at the end of season 77 points.
Middlesbrough 62 points think they will get 15 points so at end of season 77 points.
Bristol city 61 points should get 12 points so at the end of season 73 points.
But this is the championship and the bottom teams will be playing to stay in the league.

Entirely realistic and on that basis Villa would be playing Middlesbrough in a two legged play off game.

by deadbuzzardalive Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:31 pm

I saw a comment elsewhere that all we have to do is beat Cardiff in our game against them, and hope Wolves do the same in their match, and get more wins than them in our other games and we can still finish above them. Sounds easier said than done of course, but when you look at it like that it definitely puts a more positive spin on things.

We need to close the gap on Cardiff as much as possible before we play them, after which we'll have three more games to go.

by FoxyAV Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:37 pm

deadbuzzardalive wrote:I saw a comment elsewhere that all we have to do is beat Cardiff in our game against them, and hope Wolves do the same in their match, and get more wins than them in our other games and we can still finish above them. Sounds easier said than done of course, but when you look at it like that it definitely puts a more positive spin on things.

We need to close the gap on Cardiff as much as possible before we play them, after which we'll have three more games to go.

We also have to finish ahead of Fulham. I think they're more likely than us to overhaul Cardiff.

by deadbuzzardalive Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:43 pm

That's true, but if we were to somehow catch up with Cardiff, I think finishing above Fulham would probably take care of itself. It's all very unlikely, but might as well go into it giving it our best shot, even if we don't quite make it, at least it would mean us going into the play-offs on form.

by FoxyAV Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:54 pm

deadbuzzardalive wrote:That's true, but if we were to somehow catch up with Cardiff, I think finishing above Fulham would probably take care of itself. It's all very unlikely, but might as well go into it giving it our best shot, even if we don't quite make it, at least it would mean us going into the play-offs on form.

We need players who are going to work their socks off and people to motivate them. Something we haven't seen in the last couple of matches.

by deadbuzzardalive Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:22 pm

Worst thing for us, is that Cardiff play Burton at home on the Friday before we play Hull the next day. Should they win that then they will be ten points ahead of us, having played the same amount of games, so that Hull game is going to be massive for us, we absolutely must find our form again, and come away from that game with three points, do so and we'll be no more than seven points adrift of Cardiff, with their next two games being Wolves and Sheffield United, whilst we play Reading and Norwich.

by achilles Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:21 am

There is no substitute for having the points in the bag especially at this stage of the season, rather than playing catch up!

I can easily see us drift along to the end of the season now, the team lack mental strength even with Terry there.

by deadbuzzardalive Tue Mar 20, 2018 12:54 pm

Well the having points in the bag argument is usually used when one team has the points and the other has games in hand, unfortunately for us Cardiff have both the points and the game in hand, and time is running out for us to catch them; if we were in their position, I'm sure most fans would be ultra confident of going up automatically.

We have to win pretty much every game to even give ourselves a chance, but if we take each game at a time then it might just be possible, we need to decrease the points gap between ourselves and Cardiff as much as possible before we play them, of course that might not be possible if they win all their games, but what we don't want to do is not capitalize should they falter, might as well have a strong as possible end to the season, if we don't quite make it into second, at least it will get us into the play-offs.

by Dazzle Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:18 am

I shouldn’t be surprised but the team have really surprised me over the last two games with what is obviously a pretty bad mind set leading to poor performance. That’s a couple of times this season where we’ve moved ourselves into a really good position only to immediately throw it away with consecutively bad performances. We moved ourselves into 2nd not that long ago before following it up with two mediocre performances that dropped us back out of the top 2, and now we hammer the league leaders and follow it up with two defeats to bottom half teams. I’m disappointed I allowed myself to get carried away after the wolves game, I should have known better. It’ll be playoffs for us at best and I wouldn’t put any large sums on us beating the likes of Fulham or Boro.

by The Utterer Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:23 pm

I think the players had set there minds on peaking for that Wolves game in all honesty and simply had nowhere to go after such a magnificent performance. A bit like climbing mount Everest.. Once you peak then what? The only way was down and i said at the time to my missus that the real test would be QPR at home.. and we failed it miserably.

Then we had "Snow-gate" at Bolton where once again it's like the players were not mentally in the right place or prepared correctly.

One thing which worries me now for both the run-in &, if we make them, the play-offs, is the international break which will scupper preparations for the next game somewhat and then of course due to having several internationals here another factor we need to consider is the World cup! It's often touted that players awaiting a plane to the World cup don't want to get injured just before it takes off. Hopefully a promotion bonus would level out that particular playing field however. Promotion discussion thread - Page 18 226846862

Promotion discussion thread - Page 18 226846862

On a positive note hopefully the break might knock Fulham & Cardiff out of their flow as i see that as the only chance we have now of Automatic.

by achilles Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:07 pm

Arguably, it is better to have teams with internationals in it as they are supposedly better players.
However at times like this with the international break and especially coming off the back of two bad defeats it has to be detrimental to have most of your team away on international duty. Without the international players you have a chance to get all the players together and reinforce the focus of the season, that is all lost with us.

I think on our return from international breaks we have drawn one, lost one and won one!

by deadbuzzardalive Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:52 pm

I'm not expecting us to get promoted now, it's got to the point where it's impossible to conceive of anything good actually happening to us, anything that looks to be a positive at first, turns out to be a false dawn. We've been stuck in a perceptual state of failure for a long time, and there's no escaping it.

by deadbuzzardalive Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:38 pm

Cardiff already beating Burton. Once again the universe is conspiring against us, seems like nothing goes right and we're stuck in an endless loop of hope and then disappointment.

by achilles Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:10 pm

I wouldn't worry about the Cardiff result they were always going to beat Burton (or definitely should)!

by deadbuzzardalive Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:28 pm

The worst thing about it, is after I posted I realized that Burton had equalized, so went to edit that into my post, but changed my mind because I knew that wouldn't last long as at the moment it seems to be written into the laws of the jungle that everything that can go wrong for us does go wrong, and so it proved to be the case.

Of course Cardiff should always beat Burton, but the same could have been said about us against QPR at home, but of course we manage to mess things up.

by achilles Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:39 pm

The difference is that Villa seem to throw away any advantage we might gain whereas Cardiff, Wolves and Fulham seem to press on regardless and don't seem to let a bad result affect them in the next game.

by AstonThriller Fri Mar 30, 2018 6:46 pm

deadbuzzardalive wrote:The worst thing about it, is after I posted I realized that Burton had equalized, so went to edit that into my post, but changed my mind because I knew that wouldn't last long as at the moment it seems to be written into the laws of the jungle that everything that can go wrong for us does go wrong, and so it proved to be the case.

Of course Cardiff should always beat Burton, but the same could have been said about us against QPR at home, but of course we manage to mess things up.

Burton Is not the team we can rely on, they are down at the bottom for a reason. QPR have beaten Wolves, let's not forget that. Whilst Bolton have had some decent results themselves. The key will be Cardiff's games against Sheff U, Wolves, Villa and Derby, that's where we need them to slip up at least twice and we need to win our games aswell.

by achilles Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:24 pm

Cardiff have now won 8 games in a row with their paltry squad and we think it is brilliant when we go 5 games unbeaten with our so called superior squad!

It is pretty obvious who is getting the most from their squad and it is just as patently obvious that it isn't Bruce.

by AstonThriller Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:54 pm

achilles wrote:Cardiff have now won 8 games in a row with their paltry squad and we think it is brilliant when we go 5 games unbeaten with our so called superior squad!

It is pretty obvious who is getting the most from their squad and it is just as patently obvious that it isn't Bruce.

We won seven games in a row before the loss at Fulham. If we were playing Burton instead of Fulham away I'm sure we would have won eight in a row too.

Just need to keep calm heads and see what tomorrow brings. This division can change in a blink of an eye, and I just don't see both Cardiff and Fulham continuing to win like this, something will have to give.

by AstonThriller Fri Mar 30, 2018 9:39 pm

If you think things are bleak with us, have a look at what's happening at Derby right now!!. And it's funny because both of us were second at one stage. Them way longer than us. Now they have a genuine fight on their hands to make the playoffs.

by The Utterer Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:47 am

That Derby performance today is actually a worry as i don't see them doing anything other than getting royally stuffed when they play Cardiff at theirs. If that happens sadly i think we're done for this season regards Automatic.

As for Fulham well. It seems everything is going for them, the opposite of what is happening to us actually. Teams just seem to roll over against them where they raise their game against us.

So that means likely the awful playoffs... Promotion discussion thread - Page 18 1401410211

Promotion discussion thread - Page 18 1401410211

Typically now Wolves have had two reds thus weakening them for the Cardiff clash! It's just not rolling for us this year is it.

by deadbuzzardalive Sat Mar 31, 2018 5:33 am

Cardiff are ten points ahead of us now, having played the same amount of games as us, and we've only got eight games left to go. The reality of the situation is that we're not catching up with them, we won't win enough games, and they're not going to just conveniently lose all these so called tougher fixtures, some of them they'll win.

Obviously we have to keep trying to win our games, but if we're to go up now, it's going to have to be via the play-offs.

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