Re: Promotion discussion thread

[FoxyAV]

It's not all over, we'll have to see how January goes. I'm not convinced by either winger, they're not exactly Snodgrass are they?

[deadbuzzardalive]

I'm surprised to see we're still only five points off the play-offs, even twelve points off second place isn't an insurmountable gap to close at this stage of the season. All that would be very well and good if we were playing well, or were showing any kind of form, but we're not, and I'm not sure where we're going to find any form from, our team just doesn't look capable of winning enough games on a consistent enough basis.

[DelboyVilla]

Our form is getting worse!

And i don't see a solution in the current crop of players available?

And there are no parachute payements next season?

It doesn't look promising?

[big ming]

I really don't think it's going to happen this year. Too many changes are needed to get back on track in time to have any effect this year. If anything does come good, it will be an unexpected bonus.
We need to get it right to make sure that we hit the ground running in August.
Two more John McGinn types (attitude/workrate) and lose a couple of the show ponies would help.
We all knew that Jack was important but no one thought we would fall apart without him. That is a weakness we need to sort out.

[big ming]

Aside from anything else, Kalinic has now gone for 6 goals in 2 appearances. Can't really blame him when there is nothing in front of him.
Until the workrate (ex McGinn) problem is sorted, we are going nowhere.

[deadbuzzardalive]

At first it didn't really bother me, and I thought it would be silly to punish Leeds, but the more I think about it, the more I can't but wonder that they've had an unfair advantage with all this spying business, I mean how is knowing the opposition's tactics and in some cases line-ups not an unfair advantage? If every other team had the same luxury, then the table would look different, or to put it another way, if Leeds hadn't have been spying, would they be on less points? Probably.

As for us, it's hard to be positive but we can't give up on promotion yet, I'm seeing suggestions that we should forget about this season, and start building for next, but that would be ridiculous with twenty games still to play. I'm not confident, but we have to hope.

[big ming]

I'm not giving up on promotion but, with first team changes involving four or five incoming players (including two already completed) there will be a settling in period.
Very few players come in cold, hit the ground running and then perform consistently in the first few months.
For some it's a culture/language shock. For others it's adapting to a new style. For most, it's the sudden discovery that your new team mates haven't got a clue how to play and work hard as a team!

[Dions_Bald_Head]

No way I'd give up on promotion hopes in THIS league - that's why I love it.

[big ming]

No way I'd give up on promotion hopes in THIS league - that's why I love it.

This really is not a bad league at all. It's competitive (anyone can beat anyone) and there have been some really exciting games with great goals. Unlike the Premier where the Sky 5/6 sweep all before them and the rest struggle.
If it wasn't for the money and the status, I would say stuff the Premier.

[deadbuzzardalive]

Need to take one game at a time now, and then see where we are in say a months time.

[The Utterer]

On the face of it we were the first team to stop Hull winning in a good while but yet again defensive issues spoil it. Shows we have something though to come from 2 down against an in form team.

7 point gap now to playoffs. If we can somehow reduce that to 5 by the time we get Grealish back at the months end and maybe one or two new players we still have a chance but it could go the other way easily too and we may be out of it by the time we get players back/in

[DelboyVilla]

This year I am more confident that if we make the play offs we will go up! We just need a decent run of results! And Jack back in the side!

[FoxyAV]

I am as confident that Smith will take us up as I was that Bruce wouldn't.

Like I've said before, relegation for me meant starting afresh - cutting out dead wood, bringing in new and exciting players and plucking the best from our academy, building a team rather than a squad of individual players to hit the PL with momentum and invest in the academy so we're a top academy again and all the players play to the same tactics and in the same positions as the first squad (just like Chelsea's been doing for some time with their academy) so we can bring in correct replacements if anyone's injured rather than playing someone experienced out of position - rather than trying to necessarily bounce straight back and try to stave off relegation every year.

What Smith is doing is just that, albeit three seasons later. We'll see the likes of Whelan and Jedi off (simply too old) those who don't put in any effort or play as part of a team will go (see Bolasie, probably Kodjia, definitely Richards!), players like Green, O'Hare, Blackett-Taylor and Davis in and a few 19-23-year-olds from Brentford etc coming in, along with the likes of Tammy in on loan. Sure, there'll be a lot more people complaining that we're not building a team ready for the PL but an upper/middle Championship team like Brentford. But the key is we've already tried cherrypicking the best talent from the Championship and augmenting it with youth (when desperate - see Davis last season when everyone else was injured) and some wise heads from the Premier League.
I'm confident the new owners have it right with their approach to the academy being an essential part of the first team and with their investment and Smith's tactics and way of playing he'll take us up. It's remarkable though we've had the luck of two huge slugs of money to have the chance again, we have to get it right this time and with these owners.

[Dazzle]

In my opinion we require the equivalent of 11 wins from our last 16 games, and the turnaround in form required for that would have to be monumental. Sorry, I’m not seeing us make the playoffs now. Too many important injuries and too many out of form. The drop off in performance without Grealish has been frightening, frankly. I hadn’t expected it to the extent it obviously is.

[Dions_Bald_Head]

If it helps at all, I had a very brief chat on the train a with a Fulham fan at the weekend - he hates the PL & despite all the downsides, he can't wait to get back in the Championship!

PL football will come again for us, but we need to be completely ready otherwise it won't be much (any) fun.

[deadbuzz]

A lot might depend on how far away we are points wise, and how many games we have left to play once Grealish comes back. As has been pointed out in another thread, of Smith's eighteen league games in charge, Grealish played in the first nine, and we took seventeen points from what was a very difficult run of fixtures, but following his injury in the next nine games against lesser opposition we only managed eleven points.

I can't post a link because I'm a new member, but what's interesting is to look at the table based on the nine games since he got injured, not surprisingly we're way down in seventeenth place, but in terms of points won, we haven't actually done that much worse than most of the rest ot the division, Albion in fourth place for example have only taken four points more than us in the same period, as have Leeds, and Norwich have only taken three more points than us, only Hull, Bristol City and Sheffield United have done significantly better during our bad run.

We just need him back, and then it's a question of whether we can get back to the form that we were on before his injury, it's a lot of pressure on him,  but it's our only hope really... But as I say we also need to make sure we don't fall any further away before he comes back.

[FoxyAV]

There's a story in one of the papers about clearing out the academy and bringing in players we can use in the first team and/or improve so we can sell them on for profit if necessary. That's the plan for the first team too. If the likes of Jedi, Hutton, Whelan and whoever else don't have their contracts renewed at the end of the season then it doesn't really matter, they don't fit into the plans but are on high wages. The promising youth players like O'Hare have been sent on loan, this is their chance to prove they're worth keeping or to showcase their talents for any would-be buyers in League 1 and 2 or the Championship. One of the big cheeses admitted recently they didn't think we'd be going up this season and are planning accordingly.

I can see quite a few players going: the likes of Kodjia, Albert, Taylor and a few more we can sell, the players out of contract and the loanees we have in like Tammy and El Ghazi. We have some players we'll keep like Green, Chester, McGinn and Kalinic. Grealish we'll desperately try to keep but must surely lose if we don't go up. I include Hogan with the Academy players - he's already a Smith player from Brentford so will have the opportunity to prove himself or be sold in the summer.

The likes of Mings, Hause and Carroll are interesting because we'll be evaluating them over the next five months to see if it's worth us parting with good cash in the summer to make their loans permanent.

Meanwhile 17-year-old Jaden Philogene-Bidace has come into the academy, surely one of a few new arrivals we'll see this year - talented young players we can put through the academy and possibly do what Chelsea have done for years and loan out to League 1 and 2 clubs to develop for us.

There's a plan forming here and it really doesn't tie in with immediate promotion. It's possible we've strengthened in January just in case we can make it into the playoffs and gain promotion but it looks like the plan for this year is to clear out players from the first team and academy and start working on a longer term plan. Which is going to involve promotion next season or possibly even the one after.

[deadbuzz]

If it helps at all, I had a very brief chat on the train a with a Fulham fan at the weekend - he hates the PL & despite all the downsides, he can't wait to get back in the Championship!

PL football will come again for us, but we need to be completely ready otherwise it won't be much (any) fun.

That's the kind of thing that only fans of clubs destined for relegation, or looking like they're going to miss out on promotion say, no other fans are of the opinion that they prefer the Championship to the Premier league, and rightly so, the whole point of the game is to be playing the in the best league, if you want to play in a lesser league in order to win more games, then you might as well play in the bottom division.

Besides, even if we were to go up and finish bottom next season, we'd still be better off in the long term because of the financial rewards, we'd get the initial £100m+, and then another three years of parachute payments. As it happens I don't think we'd struggle as much as some seem to think, only reason we struggled in the years before we got relegated was because of Lerner pulling the plug, previous to that most seasons we were a top half side, often top six even before the O'Neill era, it's just a question of running a club of our size properly, the rest takes care of itself.

[deadbuzz]

O'Hare, Mitch Clark, Blackett-Taylor, Lyden, and McKirdy are all out of contract in the summer so if we want to sell any of those, or use them ourselves next season, we'll need to hurry up and get them signed up to new contracts. To be honest I think we'll just let the latter two go on frees, maybe Blackett-Taylore as well, depends on how he does at Walsall.

After this season Hepburn-Murphy, Doyle-Hayes, Davis and Green will only have a year left on their contracts, as well.

[FoxyAV]

O'Hare, Mitch Clark, Blackett-Taylor, Lyden, and McKirdy are all out of contract in the summer so if we want to sell any of those, or use them ourselves next season, we'll need to hurry up and get them signed up to new contracts. To be honest I think we'll just let the latter two go on frees, maybe Blackett-Taylore as well, depends on how he does at Walsall.

After this season Hepburn-Murphy, Doyle-Hayes, Davis and Green will only have a year left on their contracts, as well.

Good point. I like the look of O'Hare and Blackett-Taylor but Clark hasn't really caught my eye yet (odd when the other two have). I don't think Bruce was too kind to our academy players but as you say, we need to make decisions quickly or else it just looks like we're offsetting a (relatively) small amount wages while lining up players for their new clubs.

It'll be interesting to see what we do with the lot with a year left. Davis is going to be our third choice striker now so unless he spends time in the U23s he's not really going to have much of a chance to show what he can do. Green's going to have to really impress (which I'm confident he will) and we'll just have to see with the other two.

Interesting times ahead.

[deadbuzz]

Well we've received a boost to our chances, in that the FA aren't going to take any further action against Mings. There was talk of him receiving a lengthy ban, would have just been just our luck that as soon as we bring in a defender who looks half decent, and helps us keep a clean sheet, albeit only against Reading, we lose him for most of the season.

[Dazzle]

We need Adomah & ElGhazi to start giving us something, nowhere near enough from either in recent times.

[FoxyAV]

Well we've received a boost to our chances, in that the FA aren't going to take any further action against Mings. There was talk of him receiving a lengthy ban, would have just been just our luck that as soon as we bring in a defender who looks half decent, and helps us keep a clean sheet, albeit only against Reading, we lose him for most of the season.

Yeah, let's hope he doesn't do anything like that again, accident or not. He did look good in defence but the Reading man's face is a mess - he had to go straight to hospital for surgery.

[deadbuzz]

Yes if he did it on purpose, we should have cancelled his contract, never mind the FA banning him, but unfortunately we can't know whether it was intentional or not, so have to give him the benefit of the doubt, but he's got to watch himself from now on, as he's getting a reputation. Going forward hopefully it's only his good performances that are making the headlines.

[deadbuzz]

Last season at this stage we had scored 47 goals, conceded 27, and had 56 points, whereas after 30 games this season, we've scored 53 goals, conceded 46, and have 43 points. So obviously it's our defence that's letting us down, having let in nineteen more goals now, than we did at this stage lage year... Hopefully the perforance from Mings, Kalanic seemingly being an improvement on Nyland, and the clean sheet on Saturdy is a sign that we're going to improve in that department.

Something else I notice looking at the table after 30 games last season, Middlesbrough were six points off the play-offs but managed to make it in the end quite comfortably, doesn't mean to say we're going to do the same, but it can be done,

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