Re: Promotion discussion thread

[Dazzle]

If Bristol City win their game in hand, then we'll be eleven points off sixth place, if they don't, we'll still need Derby to lose their game in hand, because that would mean us being nine points off top six. Then there's the small matter of us needing to win our own games, before we even look at what anyone else is doing, to be fair we've got games coming up against Derby, Small Heath, Forest, and Middlesbrough, if we were to go on a winning run against those teams, then we'd put ourselves back into contention for a late surge.

But it's always the same with us, we say we need to do this and that, or if we do this and that, then we'll be in such and such position, but we never actually do what we need to do, this saturday for example, we'll probably draw with Derby at best.

Yes, the simple fact is we have to win games. Lots of games. We get a great opportunity this Saturday to close on one of those direct rivals with a home game to Derby, who are on a sticky run themselves. We’ve been saying it for a while, but we really must win this game at the weekend. We have Grealish & Carrol available again, and you’d hope Albert has gotten a bit of confidence from his goal last weekend in what was a very decent 2nd half performance. We’re surely due one or two players finding some form after a long period in the doldrums? I just think it’s too late for us, we’ve left ourselves too much to do and it’s in other clubs hands. You’d think one of those clubs will not drop the opportunity, I have a feeling Forest could be that club. It is, however, still possible. Where there’s hope, and all that! An absolute minimum of 8pts from the next 4 games would be required to possibly make one or two start nervously looking over their shoulder. No losses.
Can our returning players hit the ground running and give us a lift? We can only hope.

[big ming]

I have already said that I don't think it going to happen for us this year but I am starting to get quite optimistic for next season. The ground work is clearly being done at all levels and whilst current first team results and performances are very patchy I can see the core of a much better team developing.
There will be a lot of departures during the summer but the inevitable sale of Jack Grealish will release funds to remodel the midfield/ attack. If we can secure Mings (Captain!), Hause and Tuanzebe along with the new RB, we will have a solid defence. Dean Smith will succeed or fail but the building blocks are being cemented into place. Looking forward to 2019/2020.

[Saunders82]

I have already said that I don't think it going to happen for us this year but I am starting to get quite optimistic for next season. The ground work is clearly being done at all levels and whilst current first team results and performances are very patchy I can see the core of a much better team developing.
There will be a lot of departures during the summer but the inevitable sale of Jack Grealish will release funds to remodel the midfield/ attack. If we can secure Mings (Captain!), Hause and Tuanzebe along with the new RB, we will have a solid defence. Dean Smith will succeed or fail but the building blocks are being cemented into place. Looking forward to 2019/2020.

On todays performance can we really allow Jack to be sold, I THINK NOT

[big ming]

Sadly, I think he promised us one season on the understanding he could then have his big move. You never know though.

[Saunders82]

Sadly, I think he promised us one season on the understanding he could then have his big move. You never know though.

Well he's missed a third of this one, so he should still be with us till Christmas !!!!

[Dazzle]

We really can’t catch a break with injuries, can we? Looks like Elphick our for a while now, just as we were looking to have sorted our problems and look relatively settled. We need Chester or Tuanzebe back in a hurry now! That aside we’ve got to be looking to start the same lineup again against Birmingham, haven’t we? I think McGinn might have to settle for a place on the bench as everyone else earned their starting shirt today, it would be hard on any of them to be dropped after that.

[Army villain]

Team played well, if Chester and Tuanzebe are not fit, we could put McGinn in Elphick place, the rest keep the same line up.

[DelboyVilla]

If Elphick is out for a while then I think we have to move Hause over and play Taylor at LB like we finished today! Listening to Smith I think the club sees JG with us for the long term when he was saying the reasons for making him captain?

[big ming]

Going to double up on us not making the play-off's and let myself be thrilled if we do. Couple of sides above have games in hand. I haven't checked but it will interesting just who those games are against - ie: how winnable?
The Derby game was the best performance we have seen for a long time but, in typical Villa style, it's probably too late and that level would need to be sustained for each of our remaining games and would require others to slip up during the run in. At worst, Jack Grealish reinforced our valuation of him yesterday. Great to have a Saturday night feeling good about things for a change.

[Dazzle]

Going to double up on us not making the play-off's and let myself be thrilled if we do. Couple of sides above have games in hand. I haven't checked but it will interesting just who those games are against - ie: how winnable?
The Derby game was the best performance we have seen for a long time but, in typical Villa style, it's probably too late and that level would need to be sustained for each of our remaining games and would require others to slip up during the run in. At worst, Jack Grealish reinforced our valuation of him yesterday. Great to have a Saturday night feeling good about things for a change.

The main team to be concerned about is Bristol City, they had the form and the final playoff position in their hands. Their remaining games are tough, they’ll drop points for sure. What todays set of results has done is put Villa in a position where if we win the next two games (Birmingham & Forest) we climb above the teams we play. It’s on us, we have to put together a run of wins now. We have to play 6 teams in our final 11 games who are currently above us, 7 if Wednesday win their game in hand. We’ve left ourselves a mountain to climb but it’s certainly more achievable with Jack Grealish in the team. Somebody will put a run together to snatch 6th place, Bristol City will do really well to hold on to it. Our last 2 games are against the current top2, hopefully they’ll have their positions confirmed by that time and not be playing for anything!
Prediction time; having looked at everyone else’s fixtures I think 70pts will be enough for 6th place, which would require us getting 22pts from an available 33. 6wins, 4draws, 1loss might do the trick!

[VillaBill]

Don’t do it to yourselves guys, we are Villa, you know we will get let down
We will lose Bunn, Steer, Hutton, Elphick, Elmo, Richards, Mings, Jedinak, Whelan, McGinn, Grealish, El Ghazi, Adomah, Kodjia & Tammy in the summer maybe raising £50m or so for Jack & McGinn and saving vast amounts on wages.
We have a manager with a track record of nurturing young athletic players into a vibrant attacking team until us as fans lose patience at the end of August
UTV

[Saunders82]

Don’t do it to yourselves guys, we are Villa, you know we will get let down
We will lose Bunn, Steer, Hutton, Elphick, Elmo, Richards, Mings, Jedinak, Whelan, McGinn, Grealish, El Ghazi, Adomah, Kodjia & Tammy in the summer maybe raising £50m or so for Jack & McGinn and saving vast amounts on wages.
We have a manager with a track record of nurturing young athletic players into a vibrant attacking team until us as fans lose patience at the end of August
UTV

Can't agree with any of that, we have been very poor all season and the players know it, Jack gave everyone a lift yesterday and they showed what they can do so I'm thinking that a good run is on the cards. Guy next to me yesterday was giving Elhamody some stick yesterday when he took a through and he came across telling him to calm down, so I think they are well aware of how the fans feel.

[deadbuzz]

Derby's next four games are all at home, Bristol City also have two home games coming up. Our next four games are away to small heath, and Forest, and then at home to Middlesbrough and Blackburn. If we can get through those, and close the gap on top six in the process, then we might have a chance.

I think what it boils down to, is that we need to make sure that yesterday wasn't a one-off, and that we go on a bit of a run now, the odd win here and there, isn't any good to us now, we need to be winning most weeks.

[VillaBill]

Don’t do it to yourselves guys, we are Villa, you know we will get let down
We will lose Bunn, Steer, Hutton, Elphick, Elmo, Richards, Mings, Jedinak, Whelan, McGinn, Grealish, El Ghazi, Adomah, Kodjia & Tammy in the summer maybe raising £50m or so for Jack & McGinn and saving vast amounts on wages.
We have a manager with a track record of nurturing young athletic players into a vibrant attacking team until us as fans lose patience at the end of August
UTV

Can't agree with any of that, we have been very poor all season and the players know it, Jack gave everyone a lift yesterday and they showed what they can do so I'm thinking that a good run is on the cards. Guy next to me yesterday was giving Elhamody some stick yesterday when he took a through and he came across telling him to calm down, so I think they are well aware of how the fans feel.

Which bit of the above don’t you agree with when we don’t go up?

[Dazzle]

I think we have a very able GK in Steer, and if it were up to me I’d give him a new deal. If we remain in the championship next season it would be useful to have some continuity, and Jed has been with us for a while, and he is better than a perennial understudy. Other players that we could retain include; Hourihane, Lansbury, Hause, Adomah, Kalinic, ElGhazi, Green, Elmohamady, Chester, Taylor, Carrol, McGinn, Nyland.
I couldn’t see us retaining all 3 GKs, so one of Kalinic, Nyland, or Steer would likely be moved on, I assume we’d prefer to ship out the GK on the most money and highest value.........which would be Kalinic I would think. I think we’ll look to move Taylor on regardless of league. Some will dream but we cannot hold Jack down in a lower level for another year. We just can’t. Hause is beginning to look a bit of a steal, isn’t he?! What I’m getting at is that we actually have a nucleus of players ready for next season if it’s to be another championship season. Yes we’ll still need a few in to cover the losses but looking at how the Smith signings are performing now, you’d trust him to fill the voids quite capably. Even as we stand now, we could go into next season with;

.................................Steer...........................
Guilbert.........Chester.........TBC.........Hause
ElGhazi..Lansbury..Carrol.Hourihane..Adomah
...........................Hogan....................................

That’s not exactly shabby, is it? I think things are looking better regardless of which League we play in next season. We now have options and a base to work from. UTV

[deadbuzz]

I'm not convinced that Grealish will be leaving us in the summer, a lot might depend on whether Tottenham come back in for him, or one of the other top six clubs, with the teams just below that level, like Wolves, Watford, Everton, Leicester, and so on, i'm not sure if they'd pay the money that we'd likely be asking for, on one player, who whilst very talented and likely to succeed in the Premier league, is essentially only proven in the championship.

Another scenario that might see him leaving, is if it turns out we're in big trouble with FFP and have to let him go for a cut price deal, but considering we've just signed Guilbert and Kalinic for a reported £10m+, and have inserted options to buy clauses in several of our loan deals, and apparently bid for Mepham from Brentford, then it doesn't look like we're that worried about money.

Strange to say, but I won't be that bothered if he does leave, we can still get promoted without him, obviously we've been rubbish this season without him in the side, but next season I expect our team to look a lot different, and hopefully it will be built in such a way that it isn't so reliant on someone like Grealish controlling games for us, to do that we'll need to sign more players who are comfortable on the ball... To be fair, Hause, Mings, and Carroll, have all been good signs of that.

Another reason why I won't be that distraught if he leaves, is the same reason, I won't be getting carried away with the players we sign, we've seen it all before, where we've signed this and that player, and managed to hold onto this and that player, and we've still managed to be rubbish when it comes to the actual season... In other words, our summer transfer business, for about the last five seasons now, hasn't really been a very good indicator of how our season is going to pan out. For all we know, we could go into next season looking much weaker on paper than we have done since we've been relegated, but end up having a much better season, in fact such a scenario wouldn't surprise me.

[Saunders82]

Don’t do it to yourselves guys, we are Villa, you know we will get let down
We will lose Bunn, Steer, Hutton, Elphick, Elmo, Richards, Mings, Jedinak, Whelan, McGinn, Grealish, El Ghazi, Adomah, Kodjia & Tammy in the summer maybe raising £50m or so for Jack & McGinn and saving vast amounts on wages.
We have a manager with a track record of nurturing young athletic players into a vibrant attacking team until us as fans lose patience at the end of August
UTV

Can't agree with any of that, we have been very poor all season and the players know it, Jack gave everyone a lift yesterday and they showed what they can do so I'm thinking that a good run is on the cards. Guy next to me yesterday was giving Elhamody some stick yesterday when he took a through and he came across telling him to calm down, so I think they are well aware of how the fans feel.

Which bit of the above don’t you agree with when we don’t go up?

IMO even if we dont go up some of those players including Jack & McGinn will stay, and we do have a manager who will look after our youngsters, thats why some have been sent out for the experience

[VillaBill]

I hope you’re right mate, I personally can’t see us keeping either

[deadbuzz]

I'm not so sure there will be a long line of clubs wanting to sign McGinn. As good as he is, and he's one of our best players, I think he's slightly overrated by our fans, perhaps in part, because we've not been used to seeing much quality in the midfield area in recent years, so even someone who's half adequate is going to stand out.

That's not to undermine him, as he's definitely a very good player, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few mid table Premier league interested, I just don't think him leaving is a foregone conclusion, and even if someone does come in for him, I think there's a chance he'd give us another season anyway.

[VillaBill]

As a stato I’ve just read that on average 73pts is required to reach play offs although Leicester once got there with 68pts.
25pts from 10 games gives us very little room for error

[VTID85]

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if Jack is still with us come January even if we miss promotion or even play-offs. Something says it will take a big offer to prize him away and yes he's got to put his career first but he's still young and he's Villa through and through. I absolutely believe he's good enough to play for one of the big 4 but his heart is in one postcode only.

[Dazzle]

As a stato I’ve just read that on average 73pts is required to reach play offs although Leicester once got there with 68pts.
25pts from 10 games gives us very little room for error

I don’t think it’ll be 73-75pts this season, I’m thinking more 68-70pts.

[Saunders82]

I hope you’re right mate, I personally can’t see us keeping either

Just have to stay positive, personally I think they will both feel that DS is the one and he will build a team around them.

[Terry Derry]

Team played well, if Chester and Tuanzebe are not fit, we could put McGinn in Elphick place, the rest keep the same line up.

Another one jumping on the ‘play McGinn out of position’ bandwagon. You’re not unique. Others have come out with this crap.

[VillaBill]

Blues are good in the air with Adams & Jukevic (spelling)
Mings & Hause are decent in the air, play them in the middle & bring Taylor in at LB.

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