Re: Promotion discussion thread

[FoxyAV]

I'd like to withdraw my suggestion of a "really really good midfielder to sit behind Jack and McGinn". We have Bjarnason and when he's fit he'll be just the man we need. Possibly just the man we need to give Hourihane some competition but it's still early days with Smith and I still reckon we're good for this.

Incidentally look at Brentford's form since Smith left.

[DelboyVilla]

A centre back, left back and goalie will strengthen us massively and see us fly up the table!

[achilles]

I think people forget just how hard our recent fixture list has been and next up is the team leading the division, it doesn't get any easier but we have remained undefeated, not many people would have expected that and that in some respects has been our problem as the expectation levels have risen. With the same players that Bruce had Smith has performed miracles and with the potential to get a couple of his players in January I am still optimistic of us thumping someone and going on a winning run!

If we had Joe Allen yesterday instead of Whelan we would have won that easily, one is still a PL player and the other is way past his best (if he ever had one)! Still it can't be changed overnight it will take time, if not this season then next. UTV

[Dazzle]

I think people forget just how hard our recent fixture list has been and next up is the team leading the division, it doesn't get any easier but we have remained undefeated, not many people would have expected that and that in some respects has been our problem as the expectation levels have risen. With the same players that Bruce had Smith has performed miracles and with the potential to get a couple of his players in January I am still optimistic of us thumping someone and going on a winning run!

If we had Joe Allen yesterday instead of Whelan we would have won that easily, one is still a PL player and the other is way past his best (if he ever had one)! Still it can't be changed overnight it will take time, if not this season then next. UTV

Well said, I agree with it all. Smith has had to play all the top contenders in his time so far, he & we are picking up the pieces from an awful opening 12 or so games from the previous manager in which we played all of the lower table teams and picked up a measly 2 or so wins. We were robbed against WBA, should have beaten Forest. It’s obvious we missed Grealish yesterday, any championship team would. It allowed Stoke to double up on ElGhazi & Bolasie with not much threat from elsewhere, unfortunately. Hopefully Grealish is back for Leeds and we can nick any sort of win which pegs things back again approaching the January. People do need to remember where we were when Smith took the reins.

[deadbuzzardalive]

I don't think anyone is complaining about Smith... Just stating that results have been dipping of late, and that top two looks very unlikely now, which it does... That's not Smith's fault, it's the fault of our poor start to the season when he wasn't around.

The thing is, starting from a week today, we play three games in six days, do well in those, and suddenly top two could be looking a possibility again, but that's easier said than done... If we're in the top six come January, and can close gap between ourselves and top two, to single figures, then I think we will have done very well.

[deadbuzzardalive]

The fact of the matter is, we needed to be winning games at home against the likes of Forest and Stoke, teams that aren't even in the top six, if we really fancy ourselves as genuine top two contenders, we can't have it both ways, where on the one hand we say we have a top two squad, but then on the other dismiss such results because of the tough opposition or us having one player out, I mean twenty three other clubs in the division have to do without Grealish, and seven of them are above us in the league, as it happens I think we are good enough to win without him, which is why when we lose without him, I don't think it should be used as an excuse, we've still got the players available for selelction to win us games, that's one of the main points of having a modern manager like Smith, so we play more as a team, and aren't reliable so reliable on individual players.

None of that's a slight on Smith, i personally wouldn't swap him for any other manager at the moment, but that doesn't take away from the fact that if we want to reach the play-offs, let alone top two we need to improve...

If we fail to beat Leeds at the weekend, that will be one win in five, and three games in a row at Villa Park without a victory, and I hate to say it, but it will be us doing something that we criticised Bruce for allowing to happen, that is, us going on a good run, but then undoing it by following it up with a bad run.

[FoxyAV]

We're currently suffering from some very curious decisions from the Bruce era - sending out Steer and Elphick on loan, for example, and bringing in Nyeland - and we're playing catchup after Bruce and MacDonald screwed us around at the start of the season.

Let's do some number crunching and look at where we'd be if we'd done something as basic as won at home and drawn away, pre- and post-Smith. Positions for each team are as of 16th December 2018:

Pre-Smith:

Beat:
Hull (A) 17th
Wigan (H) 16th
Rotherham (H) 20th
Swansea (H) 9th

Drew:
Ipswich (A) 24th
Brentford (H) 19th
Reading (H) 21st
Blackburn (A) 12th
Bristol City (A) 14th
Preston (H) 15th

Lost:
Sheffield United (A) 4th
Sheffield Wednesday (H) 18th
Millwall (A) 22nd

Post-Smith:

Beat:
Bolton (H) 23rd
Derby (A) 5th
Scum (H) 10th
Boro (A) 6th

Drew:
Forest (H) 7th
West Brom (A) 3rd
Stoke (H) 11th

Lost:
Norwich (A) 1st
QPR (A) 13th

Pre-Smith we beat three teams in the bottom half and one in the top, drew with five in the bottom half and one in the top and lost to two in the bottom half and one in the top. With Smith we beat three teams in the top half and one in the bottom, drew with three teams in the top half and lost to one in the top half and one in the bottom (albeit the first two matches under Smith).

Significantly better results under Smith.

Bruce + MacDonald’s haul was 18 points from 13 matches, 1.38 points per match, 3 teams in the top half and 10 in the bottom, 7 home games. Smith so far has 15 points from 9 matches, 1.67 points per match, 7 teams in the top half and one in the bottom, 4 home matches.

In terms of points, Bruce and MacDonald should have been beating all the lower half teams and most of the top half but if we stick to 3 points at home and 1 away we should have had 21 points at home and 6 points away, total 27 points. Under Smith we’d have 12 points at home and 5 away, or 17 points. Bruce and MacDonald were severely underperforming but Smith isn’t far off, and the former two had a far easier run. If we change it round so we’re expected to win against anyone outside the top ten, home or away, and draw with anyone from 1st-9th B+M should have had 35 points and Smith 17 points. This to illustrate just how badly B+M did.

If we give Smith the benefit of the doubt and ignore his first couple of matches while he was settling in and getting the players to do what he wanted, and we’d had proper officials at the Baggies match, Smith would have five wins and two draws.

As the old saying goes, strikers win you matches, a good defence wins you championships. We’ve been let down by our goalie and our defence, which can’t be blamed on Smith. We’ve started scoring freely, which has a lot to do with Smith. In January we can strengthen and we’ll get to play a lot of the bottom half teams again.

In the short term to have to rely on Whelan in midfield is a bit tough but we should have Bjarnason and Lansbury in for Leeds, and I’d be happy playing both along with McGinn.

[deadbuzzardalive]

I don't think it's a question of Smith's capabilities, I'm pretty certain that if he were here from the start of the season, we'd be in a lot better position than we are now, probably top two... It's just a question of what needs to be done to get promoted from the position we find ourselves in, our recent form has been decent, but because of our bad start, and that we're playing catch up, we need to be doing even better if want to get promoted.

My hope is that we can get into top six before January, and close the gap on two, even if it's only by a couple of points to what is now. Won't be easy though, as we have Leeds next, after which people talk of our difficult run ending, but I don't see Swansea and Preston away as easy games, indeed Preston have actually been in better form than us over the last ten games, picking up more points...

[achilles]

@deadbuzzardalive So basically you are saying that you wouldn't swop Smith for anyone else but he isn't doing well enough?

[deadbuzzardalive]

So basically you're putting words into my mouth... I never said Smith isn't doing well enough, my points in this thread relate to our chances of getting promoted this season, based on our entire season so far, going back to the start of the season, when Bruce was in Charge... I'm not commenting on how good or how bad Smith is doing, I wouldn't have expected any other manager to do any better, after so little time at the club, and with someone else's players, who've been drilled into playing Bruce-ball...

What I'm saying is the team aren't doing well enough, to close the gap on top two, and need to do better to break into the top six, again that's not a comment on Smith, it's a comment on the mess that Bruce left us in, meaning whoever took over, would have had an extra hard job in getting us back in contention for promotion.

Again, this thread is the promotion thread, not the Smith thread, I'm just giving my opinion on what I think we need to do to get promoted, and as such of course I'm going to be disappointed if we fail to beat mid table teams such as Forest and Stoke at Villa Park, or if we only win one game in four, it doesn't mean to say I want Smith sacked though, or that I'd prefer someone else.

[deadbuzzardalive]

With regards to tonights football, a draw would be the best result for us, a Derby win wouldn't be too bad either, in either scenario we end up being three points off the play-offs, which will mean we will have closed the gap over the weekend.

[Dazzle]

We're currently suffering from some very curious decisions from the Bruce era - sending out Steer and Elphick on loan, for example, and bringing in Nyeland - and we're playing catchup after Bruce and MacDonald screwed us around at the start of the season.

Let's do some number crunching and look at where we'd be if we'd done something as basic as won at home and drawn away, pre- and post-Smith. Positions for each team are as of 16th December 2018:

Pre-Smith:

Beat:
Hull (A) 17th
Wigan (H) 16th
Rotherham (H) 20th
Swansea (H) 9th

Drew:
Ipswich (A) 24th
Brentford (H) 19th
Reading (H) 21st
Blackburn (A) 12th
Bristol City (A) 14th
Preston (H) 15th

Lost:
Sheffield United (A) 4th
Sheffield Wednesday (H) 18th
Millwall (A) 22nd

Post-Smith:

Beat:
Bolton (H) 23rd
Derby (A) 5th
Scum (H) 10th
Boro (A) 6th

Drew:
Forest (H) 7th
West Brom (A) 3rd
Stoke (H) 11th

Lost:
Norwich (A) 1st
QPR (A) 13th

Pre-Smith we beat three teams in the bottom half and one in the top, drew with five in the bottom half and one in the top and lost to two in the bottom half and one in the top. With Smith we beat three teams in the top half and one in the bottom, drew with three teams in the top half and lost to one in the top half and one in the bottom (albeit the first two matches under Smith).

Significantly better results under Smith.

Bruce + MacDonald’s haul was 18 points from 13 matches, 1.38 points per match, 3 teams in the top half and 10 in the bottom, 7 home games. Smith so far has 15 points from 9 matches, 1.67 points per match, 7 teams in the top half and one in the bottom, 4 home matches.

In terms of points, Bruce and MacDonald should have been beating all the lower half teams and most of the top half but if we stick to 3 points at home and 1 away we should have had 21 points at home and 6 points away, total 27 points. Under Smith we’d have 12 points at home and 5 away, or 17 points. Bruce and MacDonald were severely underperforming but Smith isn’t far off, and the former two had a far easier run. If we change it round so we’re expected to win against anyone outside the top ten, home or away, and draw with anyone from 1st-9th B+M should have had 35 points and Smith 17 points. This to illustrate just how badly B+M did.

If we give Smith the benefit of the doubt and ignore his first couple of matches while he was settling in and getting the players to do what he wanted, and we’d had proper officials at the Baggies match, Smith would have five wins and two draws.

As the old saying goes, strikers win you matches, a good defence wins you championships. We’ve been let down by our goalie and our defence, which can’t be blamed on Smith. We’ve started scoring freely, which has a lot to do with Smith. In January we can strengthen and we’ll get to play a lot of the bottom half teams again.

In the short term to have to rely on Whelan in midfield is a bit tough but we should have Bjarnason and Lansbury in for Leeds, and I’d be happy playing both along with McGinn.

Was Swansea not Smiths 1st game in charge?

[deadbuzzardalive]

Another late winner for Norwich, which is annoying, but to be fair the results haven't been that bad for us today. If we do our job tomorrow, we will have closed the gap on top two and the play-off places... If we don't do our job, then things will look not so good, but it will be our own fault, and we can't expect other teams to do us favors, we have to put a run together ourselves...

[VTID85]

9 points essential from the next 3 games.

[deadbuzzardalive]

I'm not confident of getting much from the next two, I keep seeing people referring to Leeds as being our last game of a difficult run, but Preston despite losing yesterday, have taken more points than us since Smith took over, and Swansea away won't be easy either, I mean at home, and with the way we're going, they have to be favorites.

For me even top six feels a long way away at the moment.

[deadbuzzardalive]

There's still half of the season to go, if we can dig deep and pull off a couple of wins from the next two fixtures, and close the gap on top two to ten or eleven points before January... Then suddenly with new signings, a run of easier fixtures coming up, and the chance to build up some momentum, top two, might become an outside possibility again... I'm foolishly getting my hopes up here, but I wouldn't entirely rule it out.

[The Utterer]

It's gone for me i'm afraid. gap is too much now for top two. Even if we went on some ridiculous Fulham type run i doubt we'd make up that much (Which actually neither did Fulham despite their fantastic run).

The issues in defence will take time to iron out so i can see more poor results upcoming in the next few games, especially considering nothing will change until the window opens and then it's all about bedding in time if we manage to buy a couple.

It's looking more & more like another season of failure sadly.

[achilles]

It's gone for me i'm afraid. gap is too much now for top two. Even if we went on some ridiculous Fulham type run i doubt we'd make up that much (Which actually neither did Fulham despite their fantastic run).

The issues in defence will take time to iron out so i can see more poor results upcoming in the next few games, especially considering nothing will change until the window opens and then it's all about bedding in time if we manage to buy a couple.

It's looking more & more like another season of failure sadly.

I don't see it like that, whatever happens, to me it is a season of progress to get us where we want to be and ultimately when we go up we will have a solid base so that we won't just exist in the shitty PL!

[deadbuzzardalive]

I don't actually believe it will happen, but we play Swansea (a), Preston (a), QPR (h), Wigan (a), Hull (h), and Ipswich (h) in the league between now and the end of January... If we can decrease one of Leeds' or Norwich's lead over us during that spell to a single digit figure, then with seventeen games still to go and fifty-one points still to play for, we might actually have a chance...

I mean technically we could close the gap on top two to eight points before December is even over, that's very unlikely, but closing it to something like eleven points or twelve isn't that far fetched, I would have taken being ten or nine points adrift at the beginning of December with the fixtures we had, so we'd only be a couple of points off that target.

With Fulham, surprisingly they were still further adrift of the automatic places after 23 games this time last year than we are now, albeit by only one point... But we wouldn't necessarily need to go on as good of a run as they did to get top two, we'd just need to hope that none of the teams chasing second place, do as well as Cardiff did in their final 23 games last year.

The one problem with all the above though, is that I can't really see us beating Swansea or Preston. As I say, we need to dig deep, and pull out a couple of victories from those games, at the moment we're one win in five, if it goes to one win in six, then one win in seven, it starts looking like a crisis.

[smetro]

Problem for me is that I am not really sure how good smith is.
He got walsall and Brentford into steady positions in their respective divisions - Of course he needs a few windows to bring his own players on - But ultimately will DS turn out to be feisty but small club manager ?  -

[Saunders82]

I can't believe some of the comments above, we have half a season to go and lots to play for, for me its not over till the proverbial fat lady starts singing, so I'm going to enjoy the ride, I get disappointed like all of us, but hey ho at least we are having a go.

[Army villain]

Agree with Saunders we still got a lot of games to play, also the top teams at the moment will not win all the games, the only problem we have is defence.get that right , we all must agree that we are playing better football, the last game it was back to hoof ball all due to the defence.anyway let's see what we can do at the next game UTV.

[VTID85]

Agreed, and some embarassing nonsense being spouted. I get wound up sometimes and have a bit of a rant and a rave but shit me there's some who aren't happy unless they're unhappy as me mum says.

[VillaBill]

I think realistically we can forget the top two but the play offs are there for us, I would back us to beat anybody if the play offs become a reality
Wembley is a far better way to gain promotion anyway

[achilles]

I think realistically we can forget the top two but the play offs are there for us, I would back us to beat anybody if the play offs become a reality
Wembley is a far better way to gain promotion anyway

Only if you decide to turn up, otherwise it is a pretty depressing shit hole!

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