An early comparison

Right, well I know 5 games in is too early to predict anything, but I noticed that of the games we've lost so far this season, they've all been by 1 goal, so I thought I'd have a look back over the last 3 seasons and see - for the games we lost (nothing else) and in all competitions, what the margins have been.
So:
Season 14/15 -
lost 21, goal difference in games lost = 43. Points after first 5 games = 10
Number of games lost:
by 1 goal = 10
by 2 goals = 5
by 3 goals = 3 Ars/Chel/Evtn
by 4 goals = 1 Sun
by 5 goals = 2 Ars/Soton

Season 13/14 -
lost 23, goal difference in games lost = 42. Points after first 5 games = 6
Number of games lost:
by 1 goal = 11
by 2 goals = 5
by 3 goals = 5 Man U/stoke/Man U/Swans/Spurs
by 4 goals = 2 Spurs/Man C

Season 12/13 -
lost 19, goal difference in games lost = 42. Points after first 5 games = 4
Number of games lost:
by 1 goal = 10
by 2 goals = 3
by 3 goals = 3 Soton/Wigan/Man U
by 4 goals = 1 Spurs
by 5 goals = 1 man C
by 8 goals = 1 Chels

Now I would class a thumping as 3 goals or more difference, so for last season we were beaten by 3 or more goals on 6 occasions.
For the season before on 7, and for 12/13, on 6 occasions.

Given Lamberk's tactics were to not concede, and Tim has a more cavalier approach - I was surprised to see so many hammerings - I wonder how this season will pan out regarding losses by big margins. I know a loss is a loss = big fat zero points, but I thought I'd have a look behind  the losses and see what came out.

I'll be interested to do a comparison halfway through/at the end of the season to see how Tim fares against the previous 3 seasons - as I said, I know points in the bag is what it's about, but I'd like to think we'll be more competitive, more consistently, with this new team.

UTV

Interesting. I wonder how many spankings are done by teams we should be beating? I'm not sure the statistics are with me on this, but I feel we tend to do alright against the 4-5 teams with CL money.

It's not so much about how many spankings you take, rather more who the opposition is and what stage of the season. A few factors come into play, really. Off the top of my head the spankings we've taken in previous seasons have been Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd. Now you still don't want to be spanked by anyone, but a spanking against, say, a West Ham or a Southampton is less acceptable than against the aforementioned teams. And when you consider who we have started against this season it could be argued we have started poorly in comparison. Of the accepted upper tier teams we have only played Man Utd thus far, the rest of our fixtures you could make a case for hoping for wins. We have only one. We could go into the next set of fixtures and pick up what might ordinarily be considered unexpected wins, and if we do then everything else could be forgotten and everything is rosy in the villa garden. I personally would rather have points on the board having played Palace, Bournemouth, Sunderland, Leicester, Man Utd. 4pts is not a good enough return from those fixtures, not when you could easily make a case for perhaps targeting 4 wins and twelve points. The Premiership is not a playground, it cares for no one. As we have found out in previous seasons it's not a place for too many players learning on the job, especially managers too. My concern is how what seems like a majority of Villa fans have again been sold the idea of patience again, young and hungry and dynamic........and accepted it! Losses are losses, wins are wins. The only statistic i pay any attention to is the wins and losses column and the points. At seasons end no one cares for how pretty the football was or that the young players showed some promise.

Good read, this.

And Dazzle is spot on...the premiership really has no easy games any more. No team can just turn up and expect the opposition to roll over for them (with the exception of us v Man Ure).

And whilst it's a good comparison I'm not sure it's fair on Sherwood given the team has been completely overhauled and I don't think he's had a fully fit team to choose from yet. After ten games, I think we can start asking questions.

But my god those stats make for depressing reading, don't they?

My latest thoughts on the early comparison..........Villa are as ineffective as previous seasons, with less points. Worrying is something of an understatement.

Joppe84 wrote:Interesting. I wonder how many spankings are done by teams we should be beating? I'm not sure the statistics are with me on this, but I feel we tend to do alright against the 4-5 teams with CL money

Good point - been away for a few days so didn't get to do this - now added team in the OP above - bit of a mix really although Man U/Spurs seem to do us badly.

Looking at the starts and the quality of the teams we played (at the time) I would say that the season closest to this one is the 2012/3 one - not just because the points are the same, but because the quality of the teams in the first 5 games was about the same. we finished 15th on 41 points then - the 3 relegated teams went down on 36/28/25 points.

I think we need to see some points soon before we can only aspire to 41 by season's end. I'm still positive and I'm still optimistic, but we desperately need some momentum, and soon.