The Bells Are Ringing


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The Bells Are Ringing


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A DAMNING STATISTIC UNDER BRUCE

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Post by AstonThriller Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:09 am

Since his arrival, these are the list of games where we've conceded the first goal of the game.

Blackburn at home= won 2-1
Leeds away= lost 2-0
Norwich away= lost 1-0
Leeds at home= drew 1-1
Cardiff away= lost 1-0
Wolves away= lost 1-0
Brentford away= lost 3-0
Ipswich at home= lost 1-0
Barnsley at home= lost 3-1
Newcastle away= lost 2-0
Huddersfield away= lost 1-0
Reading at home= lost 3-1
Fulham away= lost 3-1
Blackburn away= lost 1-0
Brighton at home= drew 1-1
Cardiff away= lost 3-0
Reading away= lost 2-1
Bristol City away= 1-1 draw
Wolves away= lost 2-0
Sheff Wed at home= lost 2-1

Played= 20
Won= 1
Lost= 16
Drew= 3
Scored= 10
Conceded= 35
Points= 6

So basically, when we go one down under Bruce in this league we lose pretty much 97% of the time. The same was even true in the cup game against Boro. It's absolutely shocking that the first time we went a goal down under Bruce against Blackburn, was the ONLY time we've come back to claim a victory. And even then that was down to some individual brilliance by Jimmy. Since then, we've gone behind nineteen times and could only muster three points from those games. Now granted, when we go one up we don't usually lose either. But the decent teams who get out of this league know how to salvage points. Sheffield United showed that by going one down and ended up winning 4-1. Unless Bruce finds a way to fix this, I think promotion is gonna be way harder than we imagine tbh.
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Post by deadbuzzardalive Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:25 am

I'd send that information to the club, you'd think it would be something they already know, but who knows, really shows up Bruce's lack of tactical nous.
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Post by AstonThriller Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:43 am

deadbuzzardalive wrote:I'd send that information to the club, you'd think it would be something they already know, but who knows, really shows up Bruce's lack of tactical nous.

Yeah I was thinking of doing it tbh but I just wonder what difference would it make? They've stuck by the man through thick and thin lately and now we're in the top six it seems like he's untouchable right now.
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Post by Wriggle Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:09 am

Tweet it to Wyness and Xia, at least it will make them aware of it...
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Post by Wriggle Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:10 am

Tweet it to Wyness and Xia, at least it will make them aware of it...
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Post by deadbuzzardalive Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:43 am

AstonThriller wrote:
deadbuzzardalive wrote:I'd send that information to the club, you'd think it would be something they already know, but who knows, really shows up Bruce's lack of tactical nous.

Yeah I was thinking of doing it tbh but I just wonder what difference would it make? They've stuck by the man through thick and thin lately and now we're in the top six it seems like he's untouchable right now.

If we lose to QPR and as a consequence fall out the top six having only just got there, then I think the pressure will be back on him, as the last thing the club want at this point is for us to go backwards. December should be a telling month, it could make or break our season.
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Post by Dions_Bald_Head Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:29 am

It basically reflects what I tell anyone who asks me how Villa are getting on: We've bought some good players rather than invested in youth which at least means we're not broke, Plan A works well but tactically we're shallow as a teaspoon, and we generally beat teams we should beat & lose to teams we need to beat.

And finally, we have a manager that - at best - people see as short-term.

Those people are usually then pleased for me that after the troubles in the Lerner years we're not internally combusting & dropping thru the leagues like a fallen giant, but puzzled by how we settled into a midtable Championship team.


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Post by achilles Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:09 pm

That makes pretty shocking reading those statistics and it highlights major flaws within the squad and especially Bruce who obviously doesn't react to the situation. The club must be aware of it, mustn't they, after all that is what they are paid to do analyse the football side of things?

Really without addressing this issue, we are going nowhere!

It is the same as having our 'great' home record of being unbeaten before Saturday, it is worthless (for promotion aspirations) unless you pick points up away from home.
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Post by AstonThriller Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:21 pm

Alright lads...just sent this information to a board member, so at least we know those close to Xia have these stats at hand. With Terry out, there may be many more times where we find ourselves one down. So IF this trend is not addressed, it has the potential to really damage our campaign tbh.


Last edited by AstonThriller on Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by achilles Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:30 pm

You could send this to the Birmingham Mail, I am certain that they would be interested in stats like these?
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Post by Trotters Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:50 pm

I've tweeted it under the TBAR account. Great bit of analysis there BUT, playing Devil's Advocate for a moment, how do other clubs in this division respond when going a goal down? The answer to that will more fairly state if these stats are, indeed, damning or if they're the upper level of normal in modern football.

I suspect that we'll find that Villa - or rather Bruce - is extremely limited in being able to change the outlook of a game.

Well done again on that analysis @AstonThriller
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Post by AstonThriller Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:17 pm

Trotters wrote:I've tweeted it under the TBAR account. Great bit of analysis there BUT, playing Devil's Advocate for a moment,  how do other clubs in this division respond when going a goal down? The answer to that will more fairly state if these stats are, indeed, damning or if they're the upper level of normal in modern football.

I suspect that we'll find that Villa - or rather Bruce - is extremely limited in being able to change the outlook of a game.

Well done again on that analysis @AstonThriller

Ok, I just looked at the results from the top six last season.

Newcastle's results from last season and tbf they tended to lose most games where they conceded first too. The one big win where they came from behind was actually against Brighton away.

Brighton, on the other hand, came back to win at least three times and got a few draws aswell after letting in the first goal.

Reading also came back two or three times to win or draw games themselves.

Huddersfield came back two or three times to get wins.

Sheff Wed had one of the best records...they came back to win at least four times.

Fulham DOMINATED!!..they came back to draw about seven times and won about five times when conceding first...they really were very impressive.
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Post by Trotters Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:17 am

So despite the money spent and the experience brought in (which is really what should be having the biggest effect on going a goal behind), we've confirmed that this is rather massive failing on Bruce and his team.

Either there's mental fragility - which I don't buy - or it's down to tactics and the half-time team talk.

Damning indeed! Thanks for confirming AT!
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Post by FoxyAV Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:58 am

I wonder at what point of the match we usually concede first? It seems to me we often concede not long into the second half, after grinding out a 0-0 in the first half with 40% possession (home or away), after Bruce has given his team talk ('Be men! Stand up!') and after the opposition manager has used the time to talk his team through what they need to do, who they need to spend more time marking and sometimes even made a tactical substitution.
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Post by achilles Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:23 am

Aston Villa – scored-conceded/15min

Home
0-15 min 2 – 1
16-30 min 2 – 1
31-45 min 2 – 1
46-60 min 2 – 2
61-75 min 1 – 1
76-90 min 2 – 1
First half 6 – 3
Second half 5 – 4

Away
0-15 min 2 – 0
16-30 min 2 – 1
31-45 min 3 – 0
46-60 min 1 – 5
61-75 min 2 – 2
76-90 min 1 – 0
First half 7 – 1
Second half 4 – 7

Total
0-15 min 4 – 1
16-30 min 4 – 2
31-45 min 5 – 1
46-60 min 3 – 7
61-75 min 3 – 3
76-90 min 3 – 1
First half 13 – 4
Second half 9 – 11

We have the worst record in the whole championship for conceding goals in the 46 – 60 minute!

It seems to imply that we get more defensive in the second half as well as we score most of our goals in the first half.
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Post by DelboyVilla Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:15 pm

achilles wrote:
We have the worst record in the whole championship for conceding goals in the 46 – 60 minute!

It seems to imply that we get more defensive in the second half as well as we score most of our goals in the first half.

It must be the effect of Bruce's half time team talk or may be the nip out back for a pint and a woodbine?
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Post by deadbuzzardalive Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:30 pm

This stands to reason really when you think that Bruce's is main 'tactic' seems to be to keep it tight and hope that we can nick a goal or or someone can produce a moment of magic, in those circumstances you're always going to struggle if you go a goal behind.

Also I don't know if it's my imagination, but there seems to be a correlation between how well we do or don't do, with Alan Hutton in the side. OUr fortunes improved when he was dropped in favour of Elmohamady, and then as soon as brought back in our form falters drawing to small heath, and losing to Wolves and Wednesday.
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Post by Trotters Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:36 pm

That's a more stunning statistic than the "Damning Statistic" in my opinion. It tells me that opposition managers consistently work out how to stick one past us and relay this successfully to their team at half time. Meanwhile, Bruce is doing jack-shit.
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Post by DelboyVilla Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:19 am

Trotters wrote:That's a more stunning statistic than the "Damning Statistic" in my opinion. It tells me that opposition managers consistently work out how to stick one past us and relay this successfully to their team at half time. Meanwhile, Bruce is doing jack-shit.

Is it that 'stunning' or 'damning' as anyone who has watched a Potato Head managed team must realize that he is a fucktard of the highest order and as tactically aware as a sack of Kings Edwards?

But as the sheep keep telling us.....2 losses in the last 13 games??? Not baaaaaaaaaaa d! Drumroll Please
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Post by rogermuffin69 Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:33 pm

Fuctard! Lol that always makes me laugh.

DelboyVilla wrote:
Trotters wrote:That's a more stunning statistic than the "Damning Statistic" in my opinion. It tells me that opposition managers consistently work out how to stick one past us and relay this successfully to their team at half time. Meanwhile, Bruce is doing jack-shit.

Is it that 'stunning' or 'damning' as anyone who has watched a Potato Head managed team must realize that he is a fucktard of the highest order and as tactically aware as a sack of Kings Edwards?

But as the sheep keep telling us.....2 losses in the last 13 games??? Not baaaaaaaaaaa d! Drumroll Please
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Post by Trotters Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:58 pm

Well now, what can we send to Dr.Tony to correct next?

lol!
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