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Promotion discussion thread

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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by De Kuip on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:24 pm

@Dazzle wrote:First & foremost we simply have to keep churning out wins and 3pts, game after game. But I will be looking for Cardiff to drop points this week, should they put another two wins together this week away at Brentford and derby then you have to say they’ve cleared a big hurdle. We have a tricky away game at Bolton which won’t be easy at all. We need 6pts from next 2 and to see Cardiff drop at least a couple of points, can’t see anything other than a Cardiff win at derby to be honest so I’m relying on Brentford to do the business!
It's still Fulham that worry me mainly cos I can't see them losing again this season..
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by FoxyAV on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:35 pm

Like us with Grealish I think Fulham would be a bit screwed without Sessignon. Having said that I think it's more Bruce playing Onomah that scuppers us, I'd rather play virtually anyone in that position. Thor for example, or Lansbury, would want to play for the Villa and the team and would do well, at best Onomah would probably only want to play to try to impress enough to get into the Spurs squad.

Grabban is also going to be vital for us in the next 10 matches. He's already up to speed and gives us the goals no one else could in the first half of the season, although again that says a lot about Onomah/Grealish than it does Hogan's ability to work with hoofball.

It's nice though to have a squad and formation that finally picks itself and to know we go into matches with a good chance of winning.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by smetro on Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:50 pm

@AstonThriller wrote:
@deadbuzzardalive wrote:Wolves record since Christmas has been play-off form at best, but I think they've done enough already to get over the line, they've got two home games coming up against Reading and Burton, which should put them back on track.

Two very big games for us this week, won't be easy, but if we were to win both of them, then we could be second going into the international break.

They still have Boro, Derby and Cardiff to play, plus are more than capable of dropping points other sides as we've seen against Sunderland, Forest and Norwich.

Anyway, this week is massive. Cardiff travel to Brentford and Derby, whilst we play QPR and Bolton. Of course, nothing is written in stone, but we've got to see this as a chance to close the gap on them. Let's just pray that we do just that.

COME ON VILLA!! Scarf Waving

Based on recent performances Wolves could quite easily loose two of those three. From what I have seen I would be surprised if Cardiff don't beat wolves. Interesting that they have hit a poor patch, and Nuno seems to have gone haywire - that said even avarage performances got them a 3-0 against leeds
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by De Kuip on Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:40 pm

@smetro wrote:
@AstonThriller wrote:
@deadbuzzardalive wrote:Wolves record since Christmas has been play-off form at best, but I think they've done enough already to get over the line, they've got two home games coming up against Reading and Burton, which should put them back on track.

Two very big games for us this week, won't be easy, but if we were to win both of them, then we could be second going into the international break.

They still have Boro, Derby and Cardiff to play, plus are more than capable of dropping points other sides as we've seen against Sunderland, Forest and Norwich.

Anyway, this week is massive. Cardiff travel to Brentford and Derby, whilst we play QPR and Bolton. Of course, nothing is written in stone, but we've got to see this as a chance to close the gap on them. Let's just pray that we do just that.

COME ON VILLA!! Scarf Waving

Based on recent performances Wolves could quite easily loose two of those three.  From what I have seen I would be surprised if Cardiff don't beat wolves. Interesting that they have hit a poor patch, and Nuno seems to have gone haywire - that said even avarage performances got them a 3-0 against leeds

Agreed, but I also think using the current Leeds team as any kind of benchmark other than how many will they concede is pointless. They truly are desperately bad.
I think heckinbittom will sort them but they are dreadful currently.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by smetro on Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:06 am


I really rate Cardiff - and think they will beat us at up (-3 pts) throw in a banana skin (-3pts) - and a draw - 1pt
Win the remaining the games - and that gives us 92 points - which should be enough.

Usually there is a weekend where all top sides lose !

My big fear is Cardiff will kick the crap out of grealish causing him to miss a few matches - he is vital for us in the run in.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by Dazzle on Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:20 am

@smetro wrote:
I really rate Cardiff - and think they will beat us at up (-3 pts) throw in a banana skin (-3pts) - and a draw - 1pt
Win the remaining the games - and that gives us 92 points - which should be enough.

Usually there is a weekend where all top sides lose !

My big fear is Cardiff will kick the crap out of grealish causing him to miss a few matches - he is vital for us in the run in.

I think that Cardiff will try to kick Grealish out of the game but it’s a whole lot harder to get away with at Villa Park. We’ll beat Cardiff at Villa Park with a full strength team. I can easily see a sending off for Cardiff as they will revert to Warnocks favoured tactic against good players. Kick. What would intensify the kicking is if we’re above them going into the game.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by smetro on Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:38 am

Just looking at some articles on stats for promotion. On average 90 points pretty much books an automatic spot - so we need to win 7 of the last 10 games.

Weird how these things turn out. In our relegation battles we rarley actually needed the 40 points to stay up - sometimes 35 would have done it. At the moment you couldn't split , Fulham, Cardiff, Villa - one of them though will run out of steam or crack under the pressure of the next few games.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by Dazzle on Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:46 am

@smetro wrote:Just looking at some articles on stats for promotion. On average 90 points pretty much books an automatic spot - so we need to win 7 of the last 10 games.

Weird how these things turn out. In our relegation battles we rarley actually needed the 40 points to stay up - sometimes 35 would have done it. At the moment you couldn't split , Fulham, Cardiff, Villa - one of them though will run out of steam or crack under the pressure of the next few games.

It’s just possible that 90pts might not be enough for top 2 this season, there are 3 teams currently bang in form and winning game after game going into the final furlong. I can’t remember if the championship has seen 3 teams at the top of the table in such good form going into the final 10 games? At the current rate you could easily say you’r expecting to see Fulham to win 8 of their last 9, if not all 9. I can definitely see us winning 7 of our last 10. On paper Cardiff have a stickier final 10, but you’d think they would win half of those and pick up a draw or two in the others. If I were a bookie I’d look at the fixtures and probably make Fulham favourites, Villa to finish 3rd and Cardiff 4th. I think Villa need to win 8 of the final 10 to finish in the top 2.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by jeffvilla on Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:17 am

We all know how Cardiff play. Not winning kick the feck out of the opposition. We had this at Cardiff, in the away leg if any of that had happened on the street they would have been done with assault.

We need to be smarter and try to ride the tackles. I am all into tasty but fair tackles but Cardiff take the mick. I am gobsmacked that half the team hasn't been sent off at one point or another.. UTV
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by smetro on Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:24 am

@Dazzle wrote:
@smetro wrote:Just looking at some articles on stats for promotion. On average 90 points pretty much books an automatic spot - so we need to win 7 of the last 10 games.

Weird how these things turn out. In our relegation battles we rarley actually needed the 40 points to stay up - sometimes 35 would have done it. At  the moment you couldn't split , Fulham, Cardiff, Villa - one of them though will run out of steam or crack under the pressure of the next few games.

It’s just possible that 90pts might not be enough for top 2 this season, there are 3 teams currently bang in form and winning game after game going into the final furlong. I can’t remember if the championship has seen 3 teams at the top of the table in such good form going into the final 10 games? At the current rate you could easily say you’r expecting to see Fulham to win 8 of their last 9, if not all 9. I can definitely see us winning 7 of our last 10. On paper Cardiff have a stickier final 10, but you’d think they would win half of those and pick up a draw or two in the others. If I were a bookie I’d look at the fixtures and probably make Fulham favourites, Villa to finish 3rd and Cardiff 4th. I think Villa need to win 8 of the final 10 to finish in the top 2.

10 games is a long time, whilst you are in 'the season' its tempting to think Cardiff, Villa, and Fulham will just keep winning - they probably all won't. When you have the final league table you won't remember those winning steaks - just club xxx got promoted with 90 pts....
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by smetro on Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:37 pm


Apparently southampton are considering Jovanic as replacement manager - pretty sure he won't jump ship right now - but be nice if he did !
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by UnclePanda on Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:56 pm

Cardiff losing!
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by Saunders82 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:38 pm

After the lord mayors show tonight, come on Villa
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by deadbuzzardalive on Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:02 pm

We're not going up automatically now, it took us long enough to close the gap on Cardiff the first time around, then we blew it immediately by getting just one point out of a possible six. With only nine games to go, that gap isn't going to close again. What happens in the Play-offs if we make it, which we should, I don't know, but I can't say I feel particularly confident about them, the likes of Middlesbrough and Fulham will be very strong.

Our only hope now, is winning every game until the end of the season, then we still might sneak automatic promotion, it's not going to happen though.

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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by smetro on Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:27 pm

Well we weren't going to win all ten of our remaining games - in 40 odd years of following villa, I don't think I have ever known us lose only one home game. we can still lose to cardiff and get 90 points

One thing can we stop this 'Brentford are good side shite' in recent weeks theve beaten the noses, sunderland, and Burton - as soon as they come up against anyone decent the get took to the cleaners, and concede goals for fun - they are a very average side.

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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by AstonThriller on Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:35 pm

@deadbuzzardalive wrote:We're not going up automatically now, it took us long enough to close the gap on Cardiff the first time around, then we blew it immediately by getting just one point out of a possible six. With only nine games to go, that gap isn't going to close again. What happens in the Play-offs if we make it, which we should, I don't know, but I can't say I feel particularly confident about them, the likes of Middlesbrough and Fulham will be very strong.

Our only hope now, is winning every game until the end of the season, then we still might sneak automatic promotion, it's not going to happen though.

Well, you've been down about our chances before, so I can't say I'm surprised. The simple fact is Cardiff will not continue to win like this just like we didn't when we won seven on the spin. It will come to an end sooner, rather than later. IF Derby take anything from them on Saturday at home then we could be either six points behind or back to four come Saturday night. And with them still having to come to VP too. So I'm not waving the white flag just yet.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by smetro on Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:44 pm

@AstonThriller wrote:
@deadbuzzardalive wrote:We're not going up automatically now, it took us long enough to close the gap on Cardiff the first time around, then we blew it immediately by getting just one point out of a possible six. With only nine games to go, that gap isn't going to close again. What happens in the Play-offs if we make it, which we should, I don't know, but I can't say I feel particularly confident about them, the likes of Middlesbrough and Fulham will be very strong.

Our only hope now, is winning every game until the end of the season, then we still might sneak automatic promotion, it's not going to happen though.

Well, you've been down about our chances before, so I can't say I'm surprised. The simple fact is Cardiff will not continue to win like this just like we didn't when we won seven on the spin. It will come to an end sooner, rather than later. IF Derby take anything from them on Saturday at home then we could be either six points behind or back to four come Saturday night. And with them still having to come to VP too. So I'm not waving the white flag just yet.

.....and if Cardiff do continue to win then tonights result wouldn't have altered anything.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by The Utterer on Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:45 am

It's not looking good in my opinion for automatic. Of course it's not over but Cardiff and Fulham are just not stopping whilst of the three we seem the ones who throw in a duff performance here and there.

Hope i'm wrong of course but it looks like the lottery of playoffs now unless both Cardiff and Fulham have a drop in form which seems doubtful.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by De Kuip on Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:28 am

I think Cardiff will falter and we will overtake them as long as we beat them at VP. I think this will happen due to their tough fixture list.
For me the real threat is Fulham, we literally cannot do worse than them at any stage, cos they have an easy run in.
What doesn't seem different about us is the ability to cock up when we should win games on paper. What does show signs of changing is that we look good in pressure games like wolves and the noses.
That gives me some confidence for the play offs should we not qualify automatically.
If it is Fulham in second, I'd truly love to knock Neil Warnock (or to use the anagram of his name I prefer- Colin Wanker) out just to see his ugly fucking mug as red as a beetroot.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by smetro on Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:39 am

@De Kuip wrote:I think Cardiff will falter and we will overtake them as long as we beat them at VP. I think this will happen due to their tough fixture list.
For me the real threat is Fulham, we literally cannot do worse than them at any stage, cos they have an easy run in.
What doesn't seem different about us is the ability to cock up when we should win games on paper. What does show signs of changing is that we look good in pressure games like wolves and the noses.
That gives me some confidence for the play offs should we not qualify automatically.
If it is Fulham in second, I'd truly love to knock Neil Warnock (or to use the anagram of his name I prefer- Colin Wanker) out just to see his ugly fucking mug as red as a beetroot.

Can't say I agree tbh.
Warnock and Cardiff have got the bit between there teeth and don't see them letting so.
Good as we were in the 4-1 v wovles - I thought nuno had a total mare in that game - trying to out pass us in the middle of the park. We just went a bit more direct and blitzed them.
Really not sure about Fulham - to keep that run going until the end of the season would be incredible.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by De Kuip on Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:13 am

@smetro wrote:
@De Kuip wrote:I think Cardiff will falter and we will overtake them as long as we beat them at VP. I think this will happen due to their tough fixture list.
For me the real threat is Fulham, we literally cannot do worse than them at any stage, cos they have an easy run in.
What doesn't seem different about us is the ability to cock up when we should win games on paper. What does show signs of changing is that we look good in pressure games like wolves and the noses.
That gives me some confidence for the play offs should we not qualify automatically.
If it is Fulham in second, I'd truly love to knock Neil Warnock (or to use the anagram of his name I prefer- Colin Wanker) out just to see his ugly fucking mug as red as a beetroot.

Can't say I agree tbh.
Warnock and Cardiff have got the bit between there teeth and don't see them letting so.
Good as we were in the 4-1 v wovles - I thought nuno had a total mare in that game - trying to out pass us in the middle of the park. We just went a bit more direct and blitzed them.
Really not sure about Fulham - to keep that run going until the end of the season would be incredible.

I can understand why you would have a difference of opinion as the evidence does suggest that both Cardiff and Fulham are more consistent than us, but if I don't believe we can overhaul one and keep in front of the other i might as well write us off for top two and i'm just not willing to do that.
There are plenty of people good at focusing on the cloud in the silver lining but I'm not one of them.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by Villa_Dan on Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:14 pm

Lose in the playoffs and spend the better part of a decade in the championship. Clinging to our history and big (half empty) stadium
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by UnclePanda on Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:32 pm

@Villa_Dan wrote:Lose in the playoffs and spend the better part of a decade in the championship. Clinging to our history and big (half empty) stadium

We may not even get the play offs! Bristol City and Preston won today. Millwall on a decent run. Boro doing well, too.
We should get minimum play offs, but who knows? It could fall apart massively, and we could finish outside play offs.
That last game against Millwall could be a battle we are not up for.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by The Utterer on Sun Mar 18, 2018 1:29 pm

Is there some kind of delusion going on at the club?

Apparently 6 wins from the last 8 will get us automatic? I mean really?
That's 18 points which means if Cardiff win their game in hand at Derby then we are only expecting them to get 8 points from their last 8 games?

I think there's a dose of delusion going around isn't there?

I genuinely can't see Cardiff with a W3 D2 L4 record from their last 9 games
nor can i see Fulham getting less than 6 wins from their remaining and comparatively easy last 8 games!

The mind boggles sometimes.
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Re: Promotion discussion thread

Post by smetro on Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:43 pm

@The Utterer wrote:Is there some kind of delusion going on at the club?

Apparently 6 wins from the last 8 will get us automatic? I mean really?
That's 18 points which means if Cardiff win their game in hand at Derby then we are only expecting them to get 8 points from their last 8 games?

I think there's a dose of delusion going around isn't there?

I genuinely can't see Cardiff with a W3 D2 L4 record from their last 9 games
nor can i see Fulham getting less than 6 wins from their remaining and comparatively easy last 8 games!

The mind boggles sometimes.

Depends how you look at it. in terms on points yield 87 points is usually enough. I rate cardiff very highly though and don't see them loosing many. The wat to think though is to get the 87 points and let cardiff do there worst.
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