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Guess The Crowd contest

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Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Trotters on Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:55 am

Hi all,

It would seem this is a popular idea so before the season kicks off, can we all agree on how it will work?

As a suggestion:

We can run two sets of scores in case of a tie; points per place AND a total accumulative difference score.

Example, I might come in equal first (ahem!) with De Kuip on 230 points but he'll get the prize because his total attendance guess was only 60,000 out whereas mine was 75,000.

Clear as coffee? Good.

Points:
1st: 20 points
2nd: 18 points
3rd: 16 points
Etc

Bonus points:
10 bonus points if you guess the crowd exactly.
Jokers: you each get 2 jokers which will double your score for that round (obviously you have to play your joker BEFORE the results come in). You can play them both at the same time in order to double your score and double it again.

Example:
I guess 36,001 plus I play both jokers
Actual attendance: 36,001 (funny that!)
20 points for 1st
10 points for exact guess
Double for a joker
Double again for 2nd joker
Total: 120 points!

Home games only. Guesses must be in 2 hours prior to kick off (stops people being in the ground on a piss wet day counting people when public transport is on strike).

It's been suggested that any guess OVER the official attendance  (that'll come from the official site, btw) not be counted. Kind of like The Price Is Right...go over and you're bust!

Local knowledge counts for an awful lot here. The likes of KMitch, myself, Joppe, etc aren't likely to know that the game is on in the local pub, trains are all late and it's just started hailing.

So how's that for a jumping off point? Jump in with your suggestions and jump up and down and scream loudly if you have the skills to make a spreadsheet calculate all this! I'm really gonna need help.

Prize: dunno. DK put his hand in his pocket for the last contest so if anyone wants to volunteer....


Last edited by Trotters on Thu Aug 04, 2016 11:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by De Kuip on Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:45 am

Liking all of the above - agree with the over and you're bust proposal - adds a bit of tension to the guess!

Have to think about a prize - obviously if we were all down the same pub, we could just say a fiver in and sort prize money 1st/2nd/3rd. Much more difficult via a forum, so maybe I can think of something.

I was going to suggest Peter Withe as a prize - he lives in Oz and so does Trotters. Trotters could kidnap him and the winner could get to keep him in a cupboard at home. Maybe the prizewinner could take him out on rainy days or when Villa lose, to cheer themselves up by getting him to retell the Euro cup final goal. Problem is I think the postage costs would be prohibitive, so maybe I'll have to think of something smaller/lighter.

UTV
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Trotters on Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:01 am

Cupboard is full of dead hookers. He'll feel at home in the boot of my car though. It stinks of sweaty foitball gear.
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Wriggle on Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:21 pm

I'm in Oz also, so happy to give you a hand mate! Bash

Not sure about the over and bust rule though, it's be a bit harsh if your guess was only one over and you get ruled out... Maybe within a percentage? That could be both above and below.
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Trotters on Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:18 pm

Have to say that I loved the over-and-bust idea but now you make a decent point and it might stifle people really having a red-hot go at nailing the exact number. Let's see what others say.
And don't forget, if you have a talent with spreadsheets and can work out a formula to track all this each week, speak up and give me a hand.
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by De Kuip on Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:44 pm

@Trotters wrote:Cupboard is full of dead hookers. He'll feel at home in the boot of my car though. It stinks of sweaty fotball gear.

You're assuming that you will win then Trotters, which you won't. Cos I will. FACT.

Maybe don't do the over total bust rule then - it was more fair if it was simply 1 point for the winner, but agree that with all your evil schemes regarding jokers and double points for guessing bang on, it is probably overly punitive to scrub someone's score for being as little as 1 person over.
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Boldfinger on Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:03 pm

@Wriggle wrote:I'm in Oz also, so happy to give you a hand mate! Bash

Not sure about the over and bust rule though, it's be a bit harsh if your guess was only one over and you get ruled out... Maybe within a percentage? That could be both above and below.
Having it over and bust would make it easier to check each week and as long as everyone knows the rules from the off it would work just fine. It's no good along people to work out percentages etc as it becomes more of a chore.
Three is limits on everything in life I.E points on a driving license, people on a bus, amount of money into an isa- you get my drift.
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Trotters on Sat Jul 30, 2016 2:13 pm

So that's 2 FOR the over-and-bust rule and 2 against.

Anyone wanna jump in and settle the tie?

And are the other ideas in my first post good to go? Anything else we should consider?
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by avfc forever on Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:38 pm

Count me in please.
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by The Utterer on Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:18 pm

I'm against the over and bust rule i think it should just be the closest. What about doing a "points over count as double thing? So in other words the number you are over is doubled automatically? That way it reduces the impact but still adds that extra element to proceedings?
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Trotters on Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:33 pm

I like that idea mate. My concern with O&B is that everyone will deliberately lowball their guesses so as to at least ensure they put runs in the board.

I'd prefer people genuinely try and guess the crowd exactly.

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

-----------

If you can, let me know of your intention to play cuz I'm doing up a spreadsheet. Easier for me to add you in now than mess about later.

Ta.
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by The Utterer on Wed Aug 03, 2016 12:06 am

Yes i'm in :)
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by De Kuip on Wed Aug 03, 2016 12:18 pm

I'm in - my guess is earlier in the thread....

I would say do whatever makes it easiest to keep working out each home game - lots of factoring and doubling etc. means much more potential for getting the calculations wrong - and this is a season-long competition, so the simpler the better.
I'd shelve the over and bust, and probably the joker idea (although it would bring another dimension), which whilst fun, might be a pain to track across a season, regarding who has used their two jokers and when. Apart from that, the suggested points' scoring made by Trotters on 28th July at 1.55 above seems to be pretty good.

Trotters, I'm happy to help. As far as Excel formula writing is concerned, I'm about as much use as Ann Frank's drum kit, but I can run a basic spreadsheet so happy to have a go.
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Trotters on Wed Aug 03, 2016 2:11 pm

I've sent you an email mate. Spreadsheet attached. Have a check of it for me?

Rules I've put on there are:
1. Any over-guesses will be counted but, as per @The Utterers suggestion, the difference will be doubled. So you don't get slaughtered, just penalised - coukd make for an exciting last few rounds!

2. 25 points for 1st place. 24 for 2nd etc. If we get less than 25 people playing I'll adjust to suit. If we get more then anyone finishing 26th or worse get zero points for that round.

3. 50 bonus points for an exact guess.

4. 10 bonus points for a guess that's 20 or less out. You don't get this bonus if you get the 50 point one.

5. Two jokers available for the season and each one doubles your score for that round (incl bonus points).

How's that sound???


Last edited by Trotters on Wed Aug 03, 2016 2:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Villa_Dan on Wed Aug 03, 2016 2:13 pm

I'm in
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Trotters on Wed Aug 03, 2016 2:33 pm

Good man!
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by De Kuip on Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:12 am

Great stuff come on then folks get guessing! I'm still thinking of a prize not sure what yet but there will be one!
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Villa_Dan on Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:47 am

I'm going to wait until after Sunday - a storming win and a few more people will turn up for the home game...
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Trotters on Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:42 pm

Yeah. Not sure whether to give the folks who jumped early a chance to re-guess being the first round an' all. But then, that's their fault for jumping the gun :)

I'm very much looking forward to this.

I wonder if our man with the contacts @narla24 can get his hands on a signed bit of tat??
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Villa_Dan on Sun Aug 07, 2016 7:47 pm

31 412
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by De Kuip on Sun Aug 07, 2016 9:48 pm

@Trotters wrote:Yeah. Not sure whether to give the folks who jumped early a chance to re-guess being the first round an' all. But then, that's their fault for jumping the gun :)

I'm very much looking forward to this.

I wonder if our man with the contacts @narla24 can get his hands on a signed bit of tat??

Main thing is it has to be post-able in case someone many miles away wins. No good offering a 4 metre length of fascia board from the changing room roof at Bodymoor heath - even if it was signed by all the players - if it has to be sent to Australia......
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by Trotters on Mon Aug 08, 2016 12:51 am

You say that in such a disparaging tone Laughing
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by avfc forever on Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:48 am

33,278
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by smetro on Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:09 pm

29, 970
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Re: Guess The Crowd contest

Post by VillaBill on Mon Aug 08, 2016 4:13 pm

30,085
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